MeritValue

Galaxy Digital Inc.

GLXYdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

Galaxy Digital Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$51.6B1$42.5B1$60.2B1
Net income$228.5M2$346.7M2−$241.3M2
Operating cash flow−$4.08M3−$205.1M3−$316.6M3
Capital expenditure$45.6M4$59M4$1.19B4
Free cash flow (derived)−$49.7M3−$264.1M3−$1.51B3
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$316.6M5$462.1M6$1.25B6
Diluted shares326.0M356.7M366.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$53.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.59
Free cash flow it threw off
−$41.18
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $53.37 of net worth that earned you −$6.59 and generated −$41.18 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 3y
FY23 18%FY24 21%FY25 -24%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 3y

Share count is up 12% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$6.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$228.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001859392-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001859392-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001859392-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001859392-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001859392-26-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001859392-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)