abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust

GLTRdata completeness 38%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust earns about 10% on equity, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $26.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue
Net income−$99.4M1−$26.8M2$27.5M3$170.3M3$1.07B3
Operating cash flow
Capital expenditure
Free cash flow (derived)
Total debt
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares10.3M11.7M11.1M9.7M10.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2,410.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$997.36
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $2,410.94 of net worth that earned you $997.36 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 -10%FY22 -3%FY23 3%FY24 16%FY25 41%

It earned an average 10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$26.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$27.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-002937 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839882-25-012444 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-004970 (NetIncomeLoss)