MeritValue

GREENLIGHT CAPITAL RE, LTD.

GLREdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GREENLIGHT CAPITAL RE, LTD. earns about 11% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$588.6M1$526.7M2$667.1M3$696M3$729.8M3
Net income$17.6M4$25.3M5$86.8M6$42.8M6$74.8M6
Operating cash flow−$56.3M7−$31.8M8$7.51M9$111.5M9$210.2M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$80.5M10$73.3M11$60.7M12$4.72M12
Cash & equivalents$76.3M13$38.2M14$51.1M15$64.7M16$111.8M16
Diluted shares34.4M39.8M34.8M34.7M34.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$205.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.69
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.37

10 shares is a claim on $205.2 of net worth that earned you $21.69 last year, against $1.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 14%FY24 7%FY25 12%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 94% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$12.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$42.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001385613-24-000016 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001385613-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001385613-26-000010 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001385613-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001385613-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001385613-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001385613-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001385613-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001385613-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001385613-24-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001385613-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001385613-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001385613-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001385613-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001385613-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001385613-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)