Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc.
GLPIdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on fileGaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.17 and $102.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $109.7M1 | $01 | $01 | $1.53B2 | $1.59B3 |
| Net income | $534M4 | $684.7M5 | $734.3M6 | $784.6M6 | $825.1M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $803.8M7 | $920.1M8 | $1.01B9 | $1.07B9 | $1.13B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $13.9M10 | $159,00011 | $67,00011 | $134,00011 | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $789.9M7 | $920M8 | $1.01B9 | $1.07B9 | — |
| Total debt | $6.55B12 | $6.13B13 | $6.63B14 | $7.74B15 | $7.2B15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $724.6M16 | $239.1M17 | $684M17 | $462.6M17 | $224.3M17 |
| Diluted shares | 236.2M | 253.8M | 265.0M | 273.5M | 280.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $165.21 of net worth that earned you $29.46 last year, against $257.24 of debt.
It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.17 and $102.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth13.0%
- fcfBase$1.01B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth13.0%
- fcfBase$1.01B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$734.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $26.57 |
| Base | 13.0% | $64.37 |
| Bull | 18.0% | $83.99 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 13.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-22-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-24-000005 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)