Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc.

GLPIdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.17 and $102.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$109.7M1$01$01$1.53B2$1.59B3
Net income$534M4$684.7M5$734.3M6$784.6M6$825.1M6
Operating cash flow$803.8M7$920.1M8$1.01B9$1.07B9$1.13B9
Capital expenditure$13.9M10$159,00011$67,00011$134,00011
Free cash flow (derived)$789.9M7$920M8$1.01B9$1.07B9
Total debt$6.55B12$6.13B13$6.63B14$7.74B15$7.2B15
Cash & equivalents$724.6M16$239.1M17$684M17$462.6M17$224.3M17
Diluted shares236.2M253.8M265.0M273.5M280.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$165.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.46
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying
$257.24

10 shares is a claim on $165.21 of net worth that earned you $29.46 last year, against $257.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 10%FY23 11%FY24 10%FY25 7%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.17 and $102.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$102.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.0%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$64.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.0%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
Earnings Power Value
$27.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$734.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $64.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.57
Base13.0%$64.37
Bull18.0%$83.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-22-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-24-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001575965-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575965-26-000032 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)