MeritValue

GOLAR LNG LTD

GLNGdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GOLAR LNG LTD earns about 6% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$260.3M1$267.7M2$298.4M3$260.4M3$393.5M3
Net income$413.9M4$787.8M5−$46.8M6$50.8M6$65.7M6
Operating cash flow$253.9M7————
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$3.25B8$2.38B9$2.43B10$3.43B11$5.82B11
Cash & equivalents$231.8M12$878.8M13$679.2M13$566.4M13$1.15B13
Diluted shares109.6M108.5M106.6M105.3M109.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$168.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$531.28

10 shares is a claim on $168.32 of net worth that earned you $6 last year, against $531.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 25%FY23 -0%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 79% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$6.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001207179-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001207179-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021198 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001207179-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001207179-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021198 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001207179-22-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001207179-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001207179-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001207179-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021198 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001207179-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021198 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)