MeritValue

Global-E Online Ltd.

GLBEdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Global-E Online Ltd. earns about -12% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 73% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $32.35 and $58.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$245.3M1$409M2$569.9M3$752.8M3$962.2M3
Net income−$74.9M4−$195.4M5−$133.8M6−$75.5M6$68.3M6
Operating cash flow$18.2M7$89.3M8$108.2M9$169.4M9$283.8M9
Capital expenditure$2.88M10$8.35M11$1.74M12$2.34M12$3.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$15.3M7$81M8$106.5M9$167.1M9$280.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$448.6M13$165M14$200.1M15$254.6M15$245.9M15
Diluted shares101.7M157.7M164.4M167.3M176.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.95
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $53 of net worth that earned you $3.88 and generated $15.95 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-12% avg · 5y
FY21 -24%FY22 -21%FY23 -15%FY24 -10%FY25 10%

It earned about -12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+73% shares · 5y

Share count is up 73% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $32.35 and $58.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$58.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$167.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$167.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$6.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.96
Base20.0%$32.35
Bull20.0%$32.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001148 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001772 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001148 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001772 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001148 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001772 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001148 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001772 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001148 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001772 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)