MeritValue

Glass House Brands Inc.

GLASdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Glass House Brands Inc. earns about -12% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 103% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.97 and $1.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$63.2M1$84.9M1$160.8M2$200.9M3$182M3
Net income−$43.1M4−$32.9M4−$98.3M5$519,0006−$29.7M6
Operating cash flow−$20.3M7−$40.8M7$23.2M8$28.4M9$11.4M9
Capital expenditure$108.5M10$27.8M10$12.3M11$10.3M12$27.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$128.8M7−$68.6M7$10.9M8$18.1M9−$15.7M9
Total debt$89.7M13$125.3M13$128.1M14$116.4M15$137.3M15
Cash & equivalents$54.1M16$14.1M17$32.5M18$36.9M18$23.4M18
Diluted shares40.3M64.2M72.0M75.2M81.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.62
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.76

10 shares is a claim on $9.02 of net worth that earned you −$3.62 and generated −$1.92 of cash last year, against $16.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-12% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 -8%FY23 -33%FY24 3%FY25 -7%

It earned about -12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+103% shares · 5y

Share count is up 103% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 53% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.97 and $1.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.51
Base5.0%$0.97
Bull10.0%$1.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-042090 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001848731-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001848731-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-042090 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001848731-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001848731-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-042090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001848731-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001848731-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-042090 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001848731-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001848731-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-042090 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001848731-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001848731-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-042090 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001848731-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001848731-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)