MeritValue

GLOBE LIFE INC.

GLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GLOBE LIFE INC. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $129.48 and $200.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.11B1$5.23B2$5.45B3$5.78B3$5.99B3
Net income$1.03B4$894.4M5$970.8M6$1.07B6$1.16B6
Operating cash flow$1.44B7$1.42B8$1.48B9$1.4B9$1.4B9
Capital expenditure$38.2M10$27.9M11$49.6M12$71M12$142.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.4B7$1.39B8$1.43B9$1.33B9$1.25B9
Total debt$3.87B13$4.04B14$3.75B15$2.74B16$2.63B16
Cash & equivalents$92.2M17$92.6M18$103.2M18$165.3M18$144.7M18
Diluted shares103.2M99.0M96.4M89.7M82.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$723.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$140.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$151.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$318.14

10 shares is a claim on $723.97 of net worth that earned you $140.71 and generated $151.94 of cash last year, against $318.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 12%FY23 13%FY24 15%FY25 15%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 32% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $129.48 and $200.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$183.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.33B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$200.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.33B
Earnings Power Value
$129.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.03B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$151.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $200.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$200.45
Base0.0%$200.45
Bull5.0%$256.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320335-24-000006 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320335-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320335-26-000090 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320335-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320335-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320335-26-000090 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320335-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320335-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320335-26-000090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320335-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320335-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320335-26-000090 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320335-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320335-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320335-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000320335-26-000090 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320335-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320335-26-000090 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)