MeritValue

GENERAL MILLS INC

GISdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GENERAL MILLS INC earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.96 and $48.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$19B1$20.1B2$19.9B3$19.5B3$18.4B3
Net income$2.71B4$2.59B5$2.5B6$2.3B6−$87.6M6
Operating cash flow$3.32B7$2.78B8$3.3B9$2.92B9$2.17B9
Capital expenditure$568.7M10$689.5M11$774.1M12$625.3M12$539.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.75B7$2.09B8$2.53B9$2.29B9$1.63B9
Total debt$811.4M13$31.7M14$11.8M15$29.1B16$27B16
Cash & equivalents$569.4M17$585.5M18$418M19$363.9M20$453.8M20
Diluted shares612.6M601.2M579.5M557.5M537.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$137.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$502.28

10 shares is a claim on $137.04 of net worth that earned you −$1.63 and generated $30.25 of cash last year, against $502.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY22 27%FY23 29%FY24 31%FY25 7%FY26 1%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 3229% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.96 and $48.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.29B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.29B
Earnings Power Value
$48.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.54
Base0.0%$11.54
Bull5.0%$26.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001193125-24-168943 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001193125-25-147079 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001628280-26-046466 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001193125-24-168943 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001193125-25-147079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001628280-26-046466 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001193125-24-168943 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001193125-25-147079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001628280-26-046466 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001193125-24-168943 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001193125-25-147079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001628280-26-046466 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001193125-23-177500 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001193125-24-168943 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001193125-25-147079 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-25 · accession 0001628280-26-046466 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001193125-23-177500 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001193125-24-168943 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001193125-25-147079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-25 · accession 0001628280-26-046466 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)