MeritValue

GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL Co

GICdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL Co earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.46 and $95.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.06B1$1.17B2$1.27B3$1.32B3$1.38B3
Net income$103.3M4$78.8M5$70.7M6$61M6$72.1M6
Operating cash flow$49.8M7$50.2M8$112M9$50.7M9$77.8M9
Capital expenditure$3.4M10$7.4M11$3.9M12$3.8M12$3.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$46.4M7$42.8M8$108.1M9$46.9M9$74.7M9
Total debt$4.5M13$600,00014$014——
Cash & equivalents$15.4M15$28.5M16$34.4M17$44.6M18$67.5M18
Diluted shares38.0M38.1M38.2M38.4M38.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $81.56 of net worth that earned you $18.78 and generated $19.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
36% avg · 5y
FY21 49%FY22 42%FY23 32%FY24 26%FY25 29%

It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.46 and $95.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$95.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.2%
  • fcfBase$74.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.2%
  • fcfBase$74.7M
Earnings Power Value
$19.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$72.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.55
Base17.2%$58.64
Bull20.0%$65.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945114-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945114-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012945 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945114-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945114-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012945 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945114-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945114-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012945 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945114-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945114-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012945 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945114-23-000019 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945114-24-000016 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945114-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945114-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000945114-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012945 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)