MeritValue

GRAHAM CORP

GHMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GRAHAM CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.24 and $8.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$122.8M1$157.1M2$185.5M3$209.9M3$245.3M3
Net income−$8.77M4$367,0005$4.56M6$12.2M6$12.5M6
Operating cash flow−$2.22M7$13.9M8$28.1M9$24.3M9$15.9M9
Capital expenditure$2.32M10$3.75M11$9.23M12$19M12$16.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.54M7$10.2M8$18.9M9$5.36M9−$121,0009
Total debt$20.5M13$24.2M14$014$015$13M15
Cash & equivalents$14.7M16$18.3M17$16.9M18$21.6M19$6.58M19
Diluted shares10.5M10.7M10.8M11.1M11.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$125.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.22
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$11.67

10 shares is a claim on $125.98 of net worth that earned you $11.22 and generated −$0.11 of cash last year, against $11.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY22 -8%FY23 1%FY24 5%FY25 12%FY26 8%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 37% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.24 and $8.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.36M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.36M
Earnings Power Value
$4.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.56M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.3
Base5.0%$7.96
Bull10.0%$9.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-070222 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-083450 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-260688 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-070222 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-083450 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-260688 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-070222 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-083450 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-260688 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-070222 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-083450 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-260688 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-026915 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-070222 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-260688 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-026915 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-070222 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-083450 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-260688 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)