MeritValue

Graham Holdings Co

GHCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Graham Holdings Co earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $692.64 and $3,614.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.19B1$3.92B2$4.41B3$4.79B3$4.91B3
Net income$352.1M4$67.1M5$205.3M6$724.6M6$292.3M6
Operating cash flow$202.4M7$235.6M8$259.9M9$407M9$347.2M9
Capital expenditure$162.5M10$82.7M11$93.4M12$82.9M12$71.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$39.9M7$152.9M8$166.4M9$324.1M9$275.3M9
Total debt$809.3M13$882.2M14$878.6M15$748.2M16$880.8M16
Cash & equivalents$145.9M17$169.3M18$169.9M19$260.9M20$267M20
Diluted shares5.0M4.8M4.7M4.4M4.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10,962.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$668.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$629.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,014.08

10 shares is a claim on $10,962.78 of net worth that earned you $668.4 and generated $629.55 of cash last year, against $2,014.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 2%FY23 5%FY24 15%FY25 6%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $692.64 and $3,614.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3,614.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$275.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,912.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$275.3M
Earnings Power Value
$692.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$292.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1,280.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,912.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$759.14
Base20.0%$1,912.22
Bull20.0%$1,912.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104889-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104889-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011405 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104889-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104889-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011405 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104889-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104889-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011405 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104889-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104889-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011405 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104889-23-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104889-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000104889-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011405 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104889-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104889-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000104889-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011405 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)