MeritValue

Guardant Health, Inc.

GHdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Guardant Health, Inc. earns about -100% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$373.7M1$449.5M2$563.9M3$739M3$982M3
Net income−$384.8M4−$654.6M5−$479.4M6−$436.4M6−$416.3M6
Operating cash flow−$209M7−$309.5M8−$325M9−$239.9M9−$184.8M9
Capital expenditure$75M10$77.5M11$20.5M12$35.1M12$48.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$284.1M7−$386.9M8−$345.5M9−$274.9M9−$233.1M9
Total debt———$1.14B13$1.5B13
Cash & equivalents$492.2M14$141.6M15$1.13B16$525.5M16$378.2M16
Diluted shares101.3M102.2M112.0M122.7M125.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$7.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$33.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$119.96

10 shares is a claim on −$7.92 of net worth that earned you −$33.2 and generated −$18.59 of cash last year, against $119.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-100% avg · 5y
FY21 -197%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -72%FY25 -32%

It earned an average -100% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 32% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576280-24-000043 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576280-25-000044 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576280-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576280-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576280-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576280-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576280-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576280-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576280-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576280-24-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576280-25-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576280-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001576280-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576280-24-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576280-25-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576280-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)