GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.

GFSdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.5 and $109.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.59B1$8.11B2$7.39B3$6.75B3$6.79B3
Net income−$250M4$1.45B5$1.02B6−$265M6$885M6
Operating cash flow$2.84B7$2.62B8$2.13B9$1.72B9$1.73B9
Capital expenditure$1.77B10$3.06B11$1.8B12$625M12$722M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.07B7−$435M8$321M9$1.1B9$1.01B9
Total debt$2.01B13$2.51B14$2.37B15$1.81B15$1.15B15
Cash & equivalents$2.94B16$2.35B17$2.39B17$2.19B17$1.81B17
Diluted shares531.8M547.8M553.5M552.9M555.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$214.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$20.71

10 shares is a claim on $214.58 of net worth that earned you $15.92 and generated $18.15 of cash last year, against $20.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 14%FY23 9%FY24 -1%FY25 8%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 43% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.5 and $109.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$109.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
Earnings Power Value
$16.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$885M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.12
Base20.0%$60.36
Bull20.0%$60.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709048-24-000013 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709048-25-000024 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709048-26-000022 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709048-24-000013 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709048-25-000024 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709048-26-000022 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709048-24-000013 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709048-25-000024 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709048-26-000022 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709048-24-000013 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709048-25-000024 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709048-26-000022 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709048-24-000013 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709048-25-000024 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709048-26-000022 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709048-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709048-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalents)