GOLD FIELDS LTD
GFIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileGOLD FIELDS LTD earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.77 and $8.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.89B1 | $4.2B2 | $4.29B3 | $4.5B3 | $5.2B3 |
| Net income | $723M4 | $789.3M5 | $711M6 | $703.3M6 | $1.25B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.11B7 | $1.23B8 | $1.38B9 | $1.19B9 | $1.61B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $583.7M10 | $1.09B11 | $1.07B12 | $1.05B12 | $1.18B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $527.7M7 | $141.5M8 | $309.9M9 | $138.1M9 | $423.6M9 |
| Total debt | $1.53B13 | $1.08B14 | $1.08B15 | $1.24B16 | $2.5B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $886.8M17 | $524.7M18 | $769.4M18 | $648.7M18 | $860.2M18 |
| Diluted shares | 883.3M | 887.7M | 891.4M | 893.5M | 895.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $58.11 of net worth that earned you $13.91 and generated $4.73 of cash last year, against $27.88 of debt.
It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 63% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.77 and $8.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth10.1%
- fcfBase$309.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth10.1%
- fcfBase$309.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$723M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.12 |
| Base | 10.1% | $5.77 |
| Bull | 15.1% | $7.47 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 10.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001172724-23-000018 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172724-24-000017 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172724-25-000010 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001172724-23-000018 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172724-24-000017 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172724-25-000010 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001172724-23-000018 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172724-24-000017 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172724-25-000010 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001172724-23-000018 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172724-24-000017 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172724-25-000010 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001172724-22-000025 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172724-23-000018 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172724-24-000017 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001172724-25-000010 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001172724-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172724-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalents)