MeritValue

GRIFFON CORP

GFFdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GRIFFON CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.23 and $370 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.27B1$2.85B2$2.69B3$2.62B3$2.52B3
Net income$79.2M4−$191.6M5$77.6M6$209.9M6$51.1M6
Operating cash flow$69.8M7$59.2M8$431.8M9$380M9$357.4M9
Capital expenditure$37M10$42.5M11$63.6M12$68.4M12$52.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$32.9M7$16.8M8$368.2M9$311.6M9$305M9
Total debt$2.09B13$3.15B14$2.94B15$3.05B16$1.41B16
Cash & equivalents$248.7M17$120.2M18$102.9M19$114.4M20$99M20
Diluted shares53.4M51.7M54.6M49.7M46.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$15.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$65.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$302.56

10 shares is a claim on $15.84 of net worth that earned you $10.95 and generated $65.33 of cash last year, against $302.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 -4%FY23 5%FY24 9%FY25 8%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 32% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.23 and $370 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$370
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$311.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$189.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$311.6M
Earnings Power Value
$17.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$77.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $189.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$67.24
Base20.0%$189.51
Bull20.0%$189.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000050725-23-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000050725-24-000152 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-053242 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000050725-23-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000050725-24-000152 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-053242 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000050725-23-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000050725-24-000152 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-053242 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000050725-23-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000050725-24-000152 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-053242 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000050725-22-000090 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000050725-23-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000050725-24-000152 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-053242 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000050725-22-000090 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000050725-23-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000050725-24-000152 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-053242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)