MeritValue

Guardforce AI Co., Ltd.

GFAIdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Guardforce AI Co., Ltd. earns about -118% on invested capital, and has bought back 66% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$37.6M1$34.7M2$34M3$36.3M3$36.3M3
Net income$3.1M4−$5.48M5−$18.6M6−$29.6M6−$5.86M6
Operating cash flow$4.91M7$979,1648−$17.4M9−$1.6M9−$3.33M9
Capital expenditure$1.41M10$5.24M11$4.4M12$2.11M12$244,58112
Free cash flow (derived)$3.5M7−$4.26M8−$21.8M9−$3.71M9−$3.57M9
Total debt$20.6M13$16.9M14$17.1M15$381,65116$44,23216
Cash & equivalents$8.41M17$12.7M18$6.93M19$20.2M20$21.9M20
Diluted shares52.1M21.2M1.6M9.8M17.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.29
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.02

10 shares is a claim on $18 of net worth that earned you −$3.29 and generated −$2 of cash last year, against $0.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-118% avg · 5y
FY20 -22%FY21 -46%FY22 -50%FY23 -428%FY24 -47%

It earned an average -118% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−66% shares · 5y

Share count is down 66% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-034770 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037145 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036049 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-21-023502 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037145 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036049 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-034770 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037145 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036049 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-034770 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037145 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036049 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-21-023502 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-034770 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037145 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036049 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-038577 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-034770 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037145 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036049 (CashAndCashEquivalents)