MeritValue

Gevo, Inc.

GEVOdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Gevo, Inc. earns about -12% on equity, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$533,0001$1.18M2$17.2M3$16.9M4$160.6M4
Net income−$59.2M5−$98M6−$66.2M7−$78.6M8−$33.8M8
Operating cash flow−$48.3M9−$44.3M10−$53.7M11−$57.4M12−$13.4M12
Capital expenditure$56.8M13$84.1M14$54.5M15$51.1M16$30.1M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$105M9−$128.4M10−$108.2M11−$108.5M12−$43.5M12
Total debt$133.9M17$135.1M18$136.2M19$134.3M20$329.5M20
Cash & equivalents$40.8M21$237.1M22$298.3M23$189.4M24$81.2M24
Diluted shares195.8M221.5M238.7M231.7M234.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.08

10 shares is a claim on $19.93 of net worth that earned you −$1.45 and generated −$1.86 of cash last year, against $14.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-12% avg · 5y
FY21 -11%FY22 -16%FY23 -12%FY24 -16%FY25 -7%

It earned an average -12% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 146% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001392380-23-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001392380-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392380-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001392380-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001392380-23-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001392380-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392380-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001392380-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001392380-23-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001392380-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392380-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001392380-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001392380-23-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001392380-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392380-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001392380-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001392380-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001392380-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392380-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001392380-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001392380-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001392380-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392380-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001392380-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)