GE Vernova Inc.

GEVdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

GE Vernova Inc. earns about 52% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.91 and $399.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.7B1$33.2B2$34.9B2$38.1B2
Net income−$2.74B3−$438M4$1.55B4$4.88B4
Operating cash flow−$114M5$1.19B6$2.58B6$4.99B6
Capital expenditure$513M7$744M8$883M8$1.28B8
Free cash flow (derived)−$627M5$442M6$1.7B6$3.71B6
Total debt$145M9$60M10$63M10
Cash & equivalents$2.07B11$1.55B11$8.21B11$8.85B11
Diluted shares274.0M274.0M278.0M276.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$405
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$176.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$134.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.28

10 shares is a claim on $405 of net worth that earned you $176.96 and generated $134.42 of cash last year, against $2.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
52% avg · 4y
FY22 -20%FY23 -2%FY24 111%FY25 118%

It earned about 52% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 4y

Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 57% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.91 and $399.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$399.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.7B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$232.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.7B
Earnings Power Value
$20.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$557M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$126.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $232.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$119.83
Base20.0%$232.65
Bull20.0%$232.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)