GE Vernova Inc.
GEVdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
GE Vernova Inc. earns about 52% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.91 and $399.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.7B1 | $33.2B2 | $34.9B2 | $38.1B2 |
| Net income | −$2.74B3 | −$438M4 | $1.55B4 | $4.88B4 |
| Operating cash flow | −$114M5 | $1.19B6 | $2.58B6 | $4.99B6 |
| Capital expenditure | $513M7 | $744M8 | $883M8 | $1.28B8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$627M5 | $442M6 | $1.7B6 | $3.71B6 |
| Total debt | — | $145M9 | $60M10 | $63M10 |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.07B11 | $1.55B11 | $8.21B11 | $8.85B11 |
| Diluted shares | 274.0M | 274.0M | 278.0M | 276.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $405 of net worth that earned you $176.96 and generated $134.42 of cash last year, against $2.28 of debt.
It earned about 52% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 57% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.91 and $399.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$1.7B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$1.7B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$557M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $119.83 |
| Base | 20.0% | $232.65 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $232.65 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996810-25-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996810-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)