MeritValue

GERON CORP

GERNdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GERON CORP earns about -55% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 103% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.39M1$596,0001$237,0001——
Net income−$116.1M2−$141.9M3−$184.1M4−$174.6M4−$83.5M4
Operating cash flow−$95.6M5−$127.4M6−$167.7M7−$218.6M7−$111M7
Capital expenditure$207,0008$431,0009$830,0009$680,0009—
Free cash flow (derived)−$95.8M5−$127.8M6−$168.6M7−$219.3M7—
Total debt$49.8M10$72.1M11$128.8M12$118.5M13$119.5M13
Cash & equivalents$34.9M14$56.8M15$70M16$79M17$77.6M17
Diluted shares327.6M380.8M570.6M646.0M666.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.25
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.79

10 shares is a claim on $3.39 of net worth that earned you −$1.25 last year, against $1.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-55% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -112%FY23 -45%FY24 -39%FY25 -25%

It earned an average -55% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+103% shares · 5y

Share count is up 103% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 140% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027982 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000886744-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027982 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000886744-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027982 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008437 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022056 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027982 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000886744-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008437 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027982 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000886744-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)