MeritValue

Genius Sports Ltd

GENIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Genius Sports Ltd earns about -35% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 69% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.6 and $5.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$262.7M1$341M2$413M3$510.9M3$669.5M3
Net income−$592.8M4−$181.6M5−$85.5M6−$63M6−$111.6M6
Operating cash flow−$63.3M7−$3.46M8$14.9M9$81.9M9$86.4M9
Capital expenditure$6.42M10$5.97M11$3.57M12$12.3M12$21.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$69.7M7−$9.42M8$11.3M9$69.6M9$64.5M9
Total debt$176,00013$29M14$15.2M15$38,00016—
Cash & equivalents$222.4M17$122.7M18$100.3M19$110.2M20$280.6M20
Diluted shares150.9M198.9M225.9M229.5M254.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.53
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $28.44 of net worth that earned you −$4.38 and generated $2.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-35% avg · 5y
FY21 -99%FY22 -30%FY23 -13%FY24 -11%FY25 -21%

It earned about -35% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+69% shares · 5y

Share count is up 69% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 78% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.6 and $5.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$64.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$64.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.72
Base5.0%$5.6
Bull10.0%$6.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-069118 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039412 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110749 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-069118 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039412 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110749 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-069118 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039412 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110749 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-069118 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039412 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110749 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-085521 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-069118 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039412 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110749 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-085521 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-069118 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039412 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110749 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)