MeritValue

Great Elm Group, Inc.

GEGdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Great Elm Group, Inc. earns about 104% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 51% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$60.9M1$4.52M2$8.66M3$17.8M4$16.3M4
Net income−$7.28M5−$14.9M6$27.7M7−$1.39M8$12.9M8
Operating cash flow−$19M9$29.3M10−$2.37M11−$15.6M12−$9.01M12
Capital expenditure$287,00013$3,00014$53,00014——
Free cash flow (derived)−$19.3M9$29.3M10−$2.43M11——
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$24.4M15$22.3M16$60.2M17$48.1M18$30.6M18
Diluted shares25.7M26.8M41.0M30.0M38.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.32
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $18.12 of net worth that earned you $3.32 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
104% avg · 5y
FY21 -8%FY22 -96%FY23 557%FY24 19%FY25 50%

It earned an average 104% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+51% shares · 5y

Share count is up 51% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$3.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-018351 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-049001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-101834 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-194119 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-018351 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-049001 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-101834 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-194119 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-018351 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-049001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-101834 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-194119 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-018351 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-049001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-018351 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-049001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-101834 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-194119 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)