GRID DYNAMICS HOLDINGS, INC.
GDYNdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
GRID DYNAMICS HOLDINGS, INC. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 48% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.42 and $21.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $211.3M1 | $310.5M2 | $312.9M3 | $350.6M3 | $411.8M3 |
| Net income | −$7.7M4 | −$29.2M5 | −$1.77M6 | $4.04M6 | $9.67M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $18M7 | $31.7M8 | $41.1M9 | $30.2M9 | $40.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $4.72M10 | $6.07M11 | $7.87M12 | $11.8M12 | $15.3M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $13.3M7 | $25.6M8 | $33.2M9 | $18.4M9 | $25.3M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $144.4M13 | $256.7M14 | $257.2M15 | $334.7M15 | $342.1M15 |
| Diluted shares | 58.7M | 69.2M | 75.2M | 80.0M | 86.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $62.38 of net worth that earned you $1.11 and generated $2.91 of cash last year.
It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 48% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.42 and $21.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$25.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$25.3M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $8.09 |
| Base | 20.0% | $13.42 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $13.42 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007971 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008723 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001743725-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007971 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008723 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001743725-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007971 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008723 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001743725-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007971 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008723 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001743725-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005637 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008723 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001743725-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)