MeritValue

GOLD RESERVE LTD

GDRZFdata completeness 63%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

GOLD RESERVE LTD earns about -66% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue—————
Net income−$13.1M1−$11.5M2−$10.6M2−$8.6M3−$23.1M3
Operating cash flow−$10.3M4−$4.56M5−$8.61M5−$6.36M6−$7.43M6
Capital expenditure$10,0107$46,7538$2,3818——
Free cash flow (derived)−$10.3M4−$4.61M5−$8.61M5——
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$61.8M9$57.4M9$49.1M10$15.4M11$8.53M11
Diluted shares99.4M99.4M—99.5M99.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.32
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.87 of net worth that earned you −$2.32 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-66% avg · 5y
FY19 -79%FY20 -90%FY21 -77%FY22 -19%FY23 —

It earned an average -66% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001072725-21-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001072725-23-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001072725-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001072725-21-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001072725-23-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001072725-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001072725-21-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001072725-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001072725-22-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001072725-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001072725-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)