GREEN DOT CORP
GDOTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'
GREEN DOT CORP earns about -0% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.26 and $31.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.41B1 | $1.41B1 | $1.46B2 | $1.66B2 | $1.99B2 |
| Net income | $47.5M3 | $64.2M4 | $6.72M5 | −$26.7M5 | −$98.9M5 |
| Operating cash flow | $167M6 | $277.7M7 | $97.5M8 | $81.4M8 | $138.6M8 |
| Capital expenditure | $57.4M9 | $84.3M10 | $75.9M11 | $74.3M11 | $72.5M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $109.6M6 | $193.4M7 | $21.6M8 | $7.1M8 | $66M8 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.32B12 | $813.9M13 | $682.3M14 | $1.59B14 | $1.42B14 |
| Diluted shares | 55.2M | 53.9M | 52.5M | 53.5M | 55.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $161.57 of net worth that earned you −$17.94 and generated $11.98 of cash last year.
It earned about -0% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.26 and $31.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$21.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$21.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$6.72M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $31.4 |
| Base | 0.0% | $31.4 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $32.75 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001386278-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001386278-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001386278-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001386278-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001386278-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001386278-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001386278-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001386278-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001386278-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001386278-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001386278-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001386278-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001386278-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001386278-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)