MeritValue

GOLDEN HEAVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.

GDHGdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GOLDEN HEAVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LTD. earns about 22% on invested capital, and has bought back 99% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $85.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$38.5M1$41.8M2$31.8M3$22.3M3$15.3M3
Net income$13.6M4$14.3M5$6.55M6−$1.8M6−$8.59M6
Operating cash flow−$4.96M7$18.8M8−$19.3M9−$3.01M9$19M9
Capital expenditure$905,20910$275,23411$7.91M12$75,51812—
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.87M7$18.5M8−$27.3M9−$3.09M9—
Total debt——$139,28013——
Cash & equivalents$12.9M14$22.4M15$245,90816$19.8M17$86M17
Diluted shares100.0M1.0M2,7106,838793,805

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2,275.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$108.26
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2,275.75 of net worth that earned you −$108.26 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 50%FY22 53%FY23 11%FY24 0%FY25 -6%

It earned an average 22% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−99% shares · 5y

Share count is down 99% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$85.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.55M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014627 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-029119 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-005908 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014627 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-029119 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-005908 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014627 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-029119 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-005908 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014627 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-029119 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-005908 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-029119 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-029119 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014627 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-029119 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-005908 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)