GDEV Inc.

GDEVdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $14.58 and $25.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$434.1M1$479.7M2$464.5M3$420.9M3$404.3M3
Net income−$117.5M4$7.3M5$46.1M6$25.5M6$69.3M6
Operating cash flow$105.5M7$116.1M8$18M9$28.5M9$29.4M9
Capital expenditure$1.1M10$994,00011$739,00012$343,00012$311,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$104.4M7$115.1M8$17.2M9$28.2M9$29.1M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$142.8M13$86.8M14$71.8M14$111M14$62.9M14
Diluted shares196.5M197.1M197.6M18.1M18.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$49.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.05
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on −$49.9 of net worth that earned you $38.2 and generated $16.05 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−91% shares · 5y

Share count is down 91% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.58 and $25.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$28.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$28.2M
Earnings Power Value
$14.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.65
Base0.0%$25.65
Bull5.0%$31.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054192 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029853 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037847 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054192 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029853 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037847 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054192 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029853 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037847 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054192 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029853 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037847 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029853 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037847 (CashAndCashEquivalents)