MeritValue

GigaCloud Technology Inc

GCTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GigaCloud Technology Inc earns about 86% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 273% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.51 and $232.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$414.2M1$490.1M2$703.8M3$1.16B3$1.29B3
Net income$29.3M4$24M5$94.1M6$125.8M6$137.4M6
Operating cash flow$8.56M7$49.7M8$133.5M9$158.1M9$190.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.83M10$709,00011$4.38M12$15.5M12$7.87M12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.73M7$48.9M8$129.1M9$142.5M9$182.8M9
Total debt$1.51M13$621,00014$014——
Cash & equivalents$63.2M15$143.5M16$183.3M17$259.8M18$379.8M18
Diluted shares10.2M24.4M40.9M41.2M38.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.81
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $127.06 of net worth that earned you $35.93 and generated $47.81 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
86% avg · 5y
FY21 79%FY22 47%FY23 89%FY24 86%FY25 130%

It earned about 86% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+273% shares · 5y

Share count is up 273% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.51 and $232.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$232.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$142.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$131.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$142.5M
Earnings Power Value
$25.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$94.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $131.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.2
Base20.0%$131.49
Bull20.0%$131.49

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857816-24-000066 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857816-25-000015 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857816-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857816-24-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857816-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857816-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857816-24-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857816-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857816-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857816-24-000066 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857816-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857816-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112830 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857816-24-000066 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112830 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857816-24-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857816-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001857816-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)