MeritValue

GENESCO INC

GCOdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GENESCO INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 27% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.94 and $72.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$2.42B1$2.38B2$2.32B3$2.33B3$2.44B3
Net income$114.9M4$71.9M5−$16.8M6−$18.9M6$13.3M6
Operating cash flow$239.9M7−$164.9M8$94.8M9$87.9M9$145.8M9
Capital expenditure$53.9M10$59.9M11$60.3M12$41.1M12$62.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$186M7−$224.8M8$34.5M9$46.8M9$83.7M9
Total debt$31.4M13$89.7M14$34.7M15$016$3.38M16
Cash & equivalents$320.5M17$48M18$35.2M19$34M20$105.4M20
Diluted shares14.5M12.7M11.2M10.8M10.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$533.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$78.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.18

10 shares is a claim on $533.74 of net worth that earned you $12.49 and generated $78.79 of cash last year, against $3.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY22 37%FY23 11%FY24 -2%FY25 0%FY26 2%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−27% shares · 5y

Share count is down 27% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 89% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.94 and $72.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$67.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$46.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$46.8M
Earnings Power Value
$12.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$13.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$72.48
Base0.0%$72.48
Bull5.0%$87.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-036902 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-044864 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-123492 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-036902 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-044864 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-123492 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-036902 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-044864 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-123492 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-036902 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-044864 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-123492 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-009103 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-036902 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-044864 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-123492 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-22-004397 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001193125-26-123492 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-044864 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-123492 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)