MeritValue

GCM Grosvenor Inc.

GCMGdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GCM Grosvenor Inc. earns about 35% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.04 and $8.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$531.6M1$446.5M2$445M3$514M3$557.6M3
Net income$21.5M4$19.8M5$12.8M6$18.7M6$45.4M6
Operating cash flow$178.8M7$216.5M8$92.1M9$148.8M9$183.5M9
Capital expenditure$577,00010$782,00011$3.76M12$16.7M12$8.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$178.2M7$215.7M8$88.3M9$132M9$175M9
Total debt$390.5M13$387.6M14$384.7M15$432M16$428.4M16
Cash & equivalents$96.2M17$85.2M18$44.4M19$89.5M20$242.1M20
Diluted shares189.1M188.6M187.4M190.6M197.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$21.72

10 shares is a claim on $1.37 of net worth that earned you $2.3 and generated $8.87 of cash last year, against $21.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 60%FY22 35%FY23 1%FY24 12%FY25 67%

It earned about 35% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.04 and $8.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$132M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$132M
Earnings Power Value
$1.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.62
Base0.0%$8.62
Bull5.0%$10.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819796-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819796-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819796-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819796-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819796-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819796-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819796-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819796-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819796-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819796-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819796-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819796-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819796-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819796-24-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819796-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819796-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819796-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819796-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819796-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819796-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)