MeritValue

GCL Global Holdings Ltd

GCLdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

GCL Global Holdings Ltd earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$76.8M1$97.5M1$140.6M1
Net income$1.99M2−$1.37M2$5.59M2
Operating cash flow−$4.37M3$1.32M3−$10.3M3
Capital expenditure$538,3614$277,6454$161,4034
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.9M3$1.04M3−$10.5M3
Total debt—$26.9M5$34.3M5
Cash & equivalents$2.54M6$2.68M6$18.2M6
Diluted shares105.0M105.0M107.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.52
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.2

10 shares is a claim on $3.35 of net worth that earned you $0.52 and generated −$0.98 of cash last year, against $3.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 3y
FY23 15%FY24 -4%FY25 10%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 3y

Share count is up 2% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.99M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041993 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041993 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041993 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041993 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041993 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-041993 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)