MeritValue

GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC

GCBCdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC earns about 217% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 100% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.03 and $33.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$58.3M1$63.4M2$84.6M3$103.7M4$117.7M4
Net income$23.9M5$28M6$30.8M7$24.8M8$31.1M8
Operating cash flow$27.8M9$35.4M10$28.1M11$24.9M12$28M12
Capital expenditure$1.25M13$1.05M14$1.54M15$1.51M16$691,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$26.5M9$34.3M10$26.6M11$23.4M12$27.3M12
Total debt$017$018$018——
Cash & equivalents$149.8M19$69M20$196.4M21$190.4M21$183.1M21
Diluted shares8.5M17.0M17.0M17.0M17.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$140.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.03
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $140.27 of net worth that earned you $18.29 and generated $16.03 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
217% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 37%FY23 —FY24 460%FY25 153%

It earned about 217% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+100% shares · 5y

Share count is up 100% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.03 and $33.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$31.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.1%
  • fcfBase$26.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.1%
  • fcfBase$26.6M
Earnings Power Value
$17.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$28M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.05
Base0.1%$33.14
Bull5.1%$38.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-22-032848 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043315 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-040469 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-034176 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-22-032848 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043315 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-040469 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-034176 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-22-032848 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043315 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-040469 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-034176 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-22-032848 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043315 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-040469 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-034176 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-21-031052 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043315 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043315 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-040469 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-034176 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)