MeritValue

GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC

GBXdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $20.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.75B1$2.98B2$3.94B3$3.54B3$3.24B3
Net income$32.4M4$46.9M5$62.5M6$160.1M6$204.1M6
Operating cash flow−$40.5M7−$150.4M8$71.2M9$329.6M9$265.7M9
Capital expenditure$139M10$380.7M11$362.1M12$398.3M12$280.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$179.5M7−$531.1M8−$290.9M9−$68.7M9−$14.7M9
Total debt———$1.76B13$1.75B13
Cash & equivalents$646.8M14$543M15$281.7M16$351.8M16$306.1M16
Diluted shares33.7M33.6M33.8M32.4M32.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$476.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.51
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$544.79

10 shares is a claim on $476.83 of net worth that earned you $63.51 and generated −$4.57 of cash last year, against $544.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 6%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$20.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$82.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055208 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-253612 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055208 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-253612 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055208 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-253612 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055208 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117047 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-253612 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-253612 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-055208 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-253612 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)