MeritValue

Global Business Travel Group, Inc.

GBTGdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Global Business Travel Group, Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$763M1$1.85B2$2.29B3$2.42B3$2.72B3
Net income$6.2M4−$229M5−$136M6−$134M6$111M6
Operating cash flow−$512M7−$394M8$162M9$272M9$233M9
Capital expenditure$44M10$94M11$113M12$107M12$129M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$556M7−$488M8$49M9$165M9$104M9
Total debt$1.02B13$2.44B14$2.72B15$2.77B16$2.84B16
Cash & equivalents$516M17$303M18$476M19$536M20$434M20
Diluted shares—445.7M458.1M462.7M492.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$32.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$57.55

10 shares is a claim on $32.63 of net worth that earned you $2.25 and generated $2.11 of cash last year, against $57.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -26%FY22 -7%FY23 -0%FY24 -2%FY25 3%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 177% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$104M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$104M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$4.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820872-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011370 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015817 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-028779 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011370 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015817 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820872-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011370 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015817 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820872-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011370 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015817 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-035161 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820872-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011370 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015817 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-035161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820872-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011370 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015817 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)