MeritValue

Generations Bancorp NY, Inc.

GBNYdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Generations Bancorp NY, Inc. earns about 41% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.14 and $87.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue$2.73M1$2.32M2$2.29M3$2.03M4$1.88M4
Net income$87,0005$1.75M6$1.41M7$1.09M8−$1.57M8
Operating cash flow$1.37M9$998,00010$3.4M11$4.35M12$2.04M12
Capital expenditure$809,00013$231,00014$425,00015$461,00016$367,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$556,0009$767,00010$2.98M11$3.89M12$1.67M12
Total debt———$16.2M17—
Cash & equivalents$13.4M18$26.8M19$21M20$8M21$14.5M21
Diluted shares2.5M2.5M2.4M2.3M2.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$172.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.62
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $172.06 of net worth that earned you −$7.15 and generated $7.62 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY19 17%FY20 150%FY21 13%FY22 6%FY23 19%

It earned about 41% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.14 and $87.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$87.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.98M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$50.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.98M
Earnings Power Value
$5.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.09M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $50.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.04
Base20.0%$50.93
Bull20.0%$50.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-003627 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-004294 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004596 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004540 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-003627 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-004294 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004596 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004540 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-003627 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-004294 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004596 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004540 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-003627 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-004294 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004596 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004540 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004540 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-003627 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-004294 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004596 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004540 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)