MeritValue

GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, Inc.

GBDCdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, Inc. earns about 9% on equity, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$340.3M1$153.4M2$258.6M3$273.8M3$376.6M3
Operating cash flow−$306M4−$416.5M5$195.4M6$343.9M6−$113.6M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.55B7$3.08B8$3.12B9$4.6B10$4.9B10
Cash & equivalents$175.6M11$117.3M12$65.6M13$123.1M14$11.9M14
Diluted shares168.0M170.7M170.3M201.3M266.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$149.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.16
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$184.24

10 shares is a claim on $149.72 of net worth that earned you $14.16 last year, against $184.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
9% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 6%FY23 10%FY24 7%FY25 9%

It earned an average 9% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 92% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$10.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$273.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001476765-23-000077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001476765-24-000132 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001476765-25-000096 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001476765-23-000077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001476765-24-000132 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001476765-25-000096 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001476765-22-000103 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001476765-23-000077 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001476765-24-000132 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001476765-25-000096 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001476765-22-000103 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001476765-23-000077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001476765-24-000132 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001476765-25-000096 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)