MeritValue

GLACIER BANCORP, INC.

GBCIdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

GLACIER BANCORP, INC. earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.65 and $51.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$65.2M1$82.9M2$88.5M3$94M3$101.1M3
Net income$284.8M4$303.2M5$222.9M6$190.1M6$239M6
Operating cash flow$572M7$470.7M8$500.7M9$258M9$374.4M9
Capital expenditure—$33.8M10$49.5M11$48.3M11$26.8M11
Free cash flow (derived)—$436.9M8$451.2M9$209.8M9$347.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$437.7M12$402M13$1.35B13$848.4M13$1.24B13
Diluted shares99.4M110.8M110.9M113.2M119.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$351.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $351.34 of net worth that earned you $19.93 and generated $28.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 14%FY23 30%FY24 33%FY25 33%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.65 and $51.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$347.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$347.6M
Earnings Power Value
$20.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$239M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$39.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$51.7
Base0.0%$51.7
Bull5.0%$61.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000868671-24-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868671-25-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868671-26-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000868671-24-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868671-25-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868671-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000868671-24-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868671-25-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868671-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868671-25-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868671-26-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000868671-25-000046 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868671-26-000023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)