MeritValue

Galiano Gold Inc.

GAUdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Galiano Gold Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$01$231.3M2$447.8M2
Net income−$68.9M3$40.8M4$26.1M5$6.12M6−$29.3M6
Operating cash flow−$12.9M7$1.78M8−$3.63M9$55.7M10$158M10
Capital expenditure$31,00011$4,00012$35,00013$66.9M14$114.9M14
Free cash flow (derived)−$13M7$1.78M8−$3.67M9−$11.2M10$43.1M10
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$53.5M15$56.1M16$55.3M17$105.8M17$108.3M17
Diluted shares224.9M224.9M225.0M257.1M259.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.42 of net worth that earned you −$1.13 and generated $1.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -69%FY22 35%FY23 18%FY24 6%FY25 14%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.12M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-005610 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001389 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-007899 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007145 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-005610 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001389 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-007899 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007145 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-005610 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001389 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-007899 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007145 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-005610 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001389 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007145 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-005610 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001389 (CashAndCashEquivalents)