MeritValue

GATX CORP

GATXdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GATX CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $74.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.26B1$1.27B2$1.41B3$1.59B3$1.74B3
Net income$143.1M4$155.9M5$259.2M6$284.2M6$333.3M6
Operating cash flow$507.2M7$533.5M8$520.4M9$602.1M9$648.1M9
Capital expenditure$1.13B10$1.26B10$1.67B10——
Free cash flow (derived)−$622.9M7−$722.3M8−$1.14B9——
Total debt$5.93B11$6.49B12$7.45B13$8.27B14$12.5B14
Cash & equivalents$344.3M15$303.7M16$450.7M17$401.6M18$743M18
Diluted shares36.0M35.9M35.7M35.9M35.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$766.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$92.84
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$3,483.45

10 shares is a claim on $766.16 of net worth that earned you $92.84 last year, against $3,483.45 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 3%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 4%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 111% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$74.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$259.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$125.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040211-24-000023 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040211-25-000024 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040211-26-000018 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040211-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040211-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040211-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040211-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040211-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040211-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040211-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040211-23-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040211-24-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040211-25-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000040211-26-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040211-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040211-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040211-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000040211-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)