MeritValue

Gain Therapeutics, Inc.

GANXdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Gain Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -139% on equity, but has diluted owners by 224% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$133,9281$132,6402$55,1803——
Net income−$13.9M4−$17.6M5−$22.3M6−$20.4M7−$20.2M7
Operating cash flow−$12.4M8−$14.7M9−$18.9M10−$18.9M11−$18.5M11
Capital expenditure$94,21212$118,95313$15,35814$22,49315—
Free cash flow (derived)−$12.5M8−$14.8M9−$18.9M10−$18.9M11—
Total debt$1.39M16$1.21M17$1.14M18$877,00819$801,90619
Cash & equivalents$36.9M20$7.31M21$11.8M22$10.4M23$20.8M23
Diluted shares10.2M11.9M13.0M22.9M33.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.12
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.24

10 shares is a claim on $5.63 of net worth that earned you −$6.12 last year, against $0.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-139% avg · 5y
FY21 -40%FY22 -93%FY23 -177%FY24 -278%FY25 -109%

It earned an average -139% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+224% shares · 5y

Share count is up 224% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 42% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004460 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003943 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003823 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004460 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003943 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003823 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035188 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004460 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003943 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003823 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035188 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-004363 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003943 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003823 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035188 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004460 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003943 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003823 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035188 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004460 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003943 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003823 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035188 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)