MeritValue

GAIA, INC

GAIAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

GAIA, INC earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.74 and $0.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$79.6M1$82M2$80.4M3$89.3M4$99M4
Net income$3.73M5−$3.6M6−$5.6M7−$5.23M8−$4.49M8
Operating cash flow$20.9M9$1.68M10$5.87M11$6.92M12$5.67M12
Capital expenditure$17.3M13$8.42M14$5.27M15$4.98M16$6.05M16
Free cash flow (derived)$3.53M9−$6.74M10$596,00011$1.94M12−$377,00012
Total debt$7.11M17$15.1M18$11.9M19$5.8M19$5.68M20
Cash & equivalents$10.3M21$11.6M22$7.77M23$5.86M24$13.5M24
Diluted shares19.8M20.7M21.5M23.3M24.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.81
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.29

10 shares is a claim on $35.39 of net worth that earned you −$1.81 and generated −$0.15 of cash last year, against $2.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -3%FY23 -5%FY24 -5%FY25 -5%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+25% shares · 5y

Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.74 and $0.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$596,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$596,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.66
Base5.0%$0.74
Bull10.0%$0.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006277 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038768 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036287 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096522 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006277 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038768 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036287 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096522 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006277 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038768 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036287 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096522 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006277 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038768 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036287 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096522 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-007683 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038768 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036287 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096522 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006277 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038768 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036287 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096522 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)