GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP, INC.

GABCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP, INC. earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 39% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.69 and $43.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$170.4M1$278.1M2$316.9M3$353.7M3$487.4M3
Net income$84.1M4$81.8M5$85.9M6$83.8M6$112.6M6
Operating cash flow$100.8M7$110M8$107.2M9$95.8M9$159.3M9
Capital expenditure$4.69M10$7.85M11$5.75M12$5.05M12$5.32M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.2M7$102.2M8$101.5M9$90.7M9$154M9
Total debt$152.2M13$64.5M14$89.5M15$114.6M16$100M17
Cash & equivalents$395.2M18$117.4M19$115.3M19$188.8M19$118.4M19
Diluted shares26.5M29.5M29.6M29.7M36.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$315.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$27.18

10 shares is a claim on $315.88 of net worth that earned you $30.61 and generated $41.85 of cash last year, against $27.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 19%FY23 22%FY24 37%FY25 31%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+39% shares · 5y

Share count is up 39% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 34% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.69 and $43.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$42.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.8%
  • fcfBase$101.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.8%
  • fcfBase$101.5M
Earnings Power Value
$23.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$84.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$39.91
Base1.8%$43.17
Bull6.8%$53.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714395-24-000014 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714395-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714395-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714395-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714395-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714395-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714395-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714395-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714395-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714395-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714395-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714395-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714395-22-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714395-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714395-24-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000714395-25-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000714395-26-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714395-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714395-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)