MeritValue

FIRST NATIONAL CORP /VA/

FXNCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST NATIONAL CORP /VA/ earns about 368% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 62% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.91 and $41.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.02M1$10.1M2$10.2M3$14.2M4$14.3M4
Net income$10.4M5$16.8M6$9.62M7$6.97M8$17.7M8
Operating cash flow$7.87M9$26.8M10$16.4M11−$22.2M12$25.1M12
Capital expenditure$835,00013$1.18M14$1.87M15$3.3M16$4.18M16
Free cash flow (derived)$7.03M9$25.6M10$14.5M11−$25.5M12$20.9M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents——$87.2M17$162.9M18$160.9M18
Diluted shares5.6M6.3M6.3M7.0M9.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$206.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.21
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $206.53 of net worth that earned you $19.64 and generated $23.21 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
368% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 18%FY23 73%FY24 1432%FY25 304%

It earned about 368% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+62% shares · 5y

Share count is up 62% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.91 and $41.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$40.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$14.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$14.5M
Earnings Power Value
$11.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.87
Base0.8%$41.69
Bull5.8%$47.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008571 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010228 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009748 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008571 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010228 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009748 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008571 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010228 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009748 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008571 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010057 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010228 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009748 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010228 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009748 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)