MeritValue

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

FWRGdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$601.2M1$730.2M2$891.6M3$1.02B3$1.22B3
Net income−$2.11M4$6.91M5$25.4M6$18.9M6$19.4M6
Operating cash flow$63M7$62.9M8$95.3M9$115.7M9$125.9M9
Capital expenditure$35.3M10$62.2M11$83.3M12$127.9M12$156.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$27.7M7$718,0008$12M9−$12.2M9−$31M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$51.9M13$49.7M14$49.6M15$33.3M16$21.2M16
Diluted shares48.2M60.1M61.2M62.4M62.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$99.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.09
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.93
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $99.66 of net worth that earned you $3.09 and generated −$4.93 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001789940-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001789940-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789940-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001789940-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001789940-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789940-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001789940-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001789940-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789940-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001789940-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001789940-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789940-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001789940-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001789940-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789940-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001789940-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)