MeritValue

FORWARD AIR CORP

FWRDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FORWARD AIR CORP earns about -3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $35.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.39B1$1.68B2$1.37B3$2.47B3$2.5B3
Net income$105.9M4$193.2M5$167.4M6−$817M6−$107.8M6
Operating cash flow$120.6M7$250.2M8$199.2M9−$69M9$44.4M9
Capital expenditure$38.4M10$39.3M11$30.7M12$37.1M12$29.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$82.2M7$210.9M8$168.5M9−$106.1M9$15.3M9
Total debt$313.9M13$216.2M14$015$1.68B16$3.37B16
Cash & equivalents$37.3M17$45.8M18$122M19$104.9M19$106M19
Diluted shares27.3M26.9M26.0M27.5M30.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$36.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$35.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,098.54

10 shares is a claim on $36.9 of net worth that earned you −$35.09 and generated $4.97 of cash last year, against $1,098.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 21%FY23 10%FY24 -56%FY25 -3%

It earned an average -3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 975% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$15.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$15.3M
Earnings Power Value
$35.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$105.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011530 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014482 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016793 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011530 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014482 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016793 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011530 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014482 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011530 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014482 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016793 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005879 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011530 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014482 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016793 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011530 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014482 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)