MeritValue

Forward Industries, Inc.

FWDIdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Forward Industries, Inc. earns about -212% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 35% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.81 and $6.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$39M1$38.2M2$36.1M3$29.6M3$18.2M4
Net income$523,8055−$1.38M6−$3.74M7−$1.95M8−$167M8
Operating cash flow−$528,3119$1.53M10$1.04M11$519,77012−$4.5M12
Capital expenditure$67,20713$169,63114$136,08215$65,15416$25,77416
Free cash flow (derived)−$595,5189$1.37M10$904,94611$454,61612−$4.53M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.41M17$2.58M18$2.82M19$2.78M19$38.2M19
Diluted shares10.4M10.2M1.1M1.1M6.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2,164.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$245.87
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.67
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2,164.76 of net worth that earned you −$245.87 and generated −$6.67 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-212% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 16%FY23 —FY24 -865%FY25 -9%

It earned about -212% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−35% shares · 5y

Share count is down 35% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.81 and $6.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$454,616
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$454,616
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.58
Base5.0%$6.81
Bull10.0%$7.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001683168-22-008471 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001683168-23-009026 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001683168-24-009011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001683168-25-009068 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001683168-22-008471 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001683168-23-009026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001683168-24-009011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001683168-25-009068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001683168-22-008471 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001683168-23-009026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001683168-24-009011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001683168-25-009068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001683168-22-008471 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001683168-23-009026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001683168-24-009011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001683168-25-009068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001683168-23-009026 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001683168-24-009011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001683168-25-009068 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)