MeritValue

FVCBankcorp, Inc.

FVCBdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FVCBankcorp, Inc. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 100081% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.45 and $14.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.59M1$1.43M2$1.47M3$1.56M4$1.78M4
Net income$21.9M5$25M6$3.82M7$15.1M8$22.1M8
Operating cash flow$19.4M9$22.4M10$16.3M11$18.2M12$23.9M12
Capital expenditure$485,00013$166,00014$212,00015$141,00016$47,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$19M9$22.2M10$16.1M11$18.1M12$23.8M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$24.6M17$7.25M18$8.04M19$8.16M19$5.68M19
Diluted shares18,22718,48418.2M18.4M18.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$138.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.04
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $138.88 of net worth that earned you $12.08 and generated $13.04 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 19%FY23 24%FY24 23%FY25 29%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+100081% shares · 5y

Share count is up 100081% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.45 and $14.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$18.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$18.1M
Earnings Power Value
$12.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.47
Base0.0%$14.47
Bull5.0%$17.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001675644-23-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001675644-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001675644-25-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001675644-26-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001675644-23-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001675644-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001675644-25-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001675644-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001675644-23-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001675644-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001675644-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001675644-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001675644-23-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001675644-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001675644-25-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001675644-26-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001675644-24-000036 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001675644-25-000035 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001675644-26-000023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)