Futu Holdings Ltd
FUTUdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Futu Holdings Ltd earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.02 and $210.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $501.7M1 | $513.7M2 | $505M3 | $778.2M4 | $1.36B5 |
| Net income | $360.3M6 | $375.2M7 | $548.1M8 | $700.7M9 | $1.46B10 |
| Operating cash flow | $770.8M11 | $445.4M12 | −$811.4M13 | $3.99B14 | $5.24B15 |
| Capital expenditure | $9.03M16 | $11.6M17 | $9.96M18 | $21.6M19 | $7.03M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $761.8M11 | $433.8M12 | −$821.3M13 | $3.97B14 | $5.23B15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $584M21 | $644.6M22 | $632.1M23 | $1.5B24 | $1.34B25 |
| Diluted shares | 1.22B | 1.15B | 1.12B | 1.12B | 1.13B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $45.45 of net worth that earned you $12.88 and generated $46.28 of cash last year.
It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.02 and $210.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$3.97B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$3.97B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$548.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $51.33 |
| Base | 20.0% | $115.62 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $115.62 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-048600 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
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- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051213 (NetIncomeLoss)
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- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051213 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000706 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043451 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)