MeritValue

Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.

FULCdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -32% on equity, but has diluted owners by 79% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.2M1$6.34M2$2.81M3$80M4$04
Net income−$80.8M5−$109.9M6−$97.3M7−$9.73M8−$74.9M8
Operating cash flow−$78.5M9−$97.1M10−$91M11−$2.22M12−$60.1M12
Capital expenditure$1.71M13$1.96M14$508,00015$278,00016$314,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$80.2M9−$99M10−$91.5M11−$2.5M12−$60.4M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$35.4M17$35.1M18$25.6M19$58.2M20$197.5M20
Diluted shares35,36144,99161,31061,98463,355

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$55,086.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11,819.11
Free cash flow it threw off
−$9,530.27
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $55,086.42 of net worth that earned you −$11,819.11 and generated −$9,530.27 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-32% avg · 5y
FY21 -38%FY22 -55%FY23 -41%FY24 -4%FY25 -21%

It earned an average -32% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+79% shares · 5y

Share count is up 79% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-029689 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021074 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065197 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-029689 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021074 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065197 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-029689 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021074 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065197 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-029689 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021074 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065197 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-029689 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021074 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065197 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)