MeritValue

Bitfufu Inc.

FUFUdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Bitfufu Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$103M1$137.9M2$183.9M3$305.8M3$414.4M3
Net income$4.93M4$2.44M5$10.5M6$54M6−$31.3M6
Operating cash flow$15.9M7−$7.44M8−$196M9−$219.9M9−$112.9M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$109.4M10$102.4M10$101.3M10$15M11
Cash & equivalents$13.3M12$60.4M13$32M14$38.2M14$27.8M14
Diluted shares142.5M149.4M150.0M165.5M169.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.84
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.88

10 shares is a claim on $8.82 of net worth that earned you −$1.84 last year, against $0.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 8%FY23 17%FY24 26%FY25 -12%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 86% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.93M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036269 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-033733 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048533 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036269 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-033733 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048533 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036269 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-033733 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048533 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-033733 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048533 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-033733 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-033733 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048533 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)